Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d21…2c72 crypto 1042 markets active 1d ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-2%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%451W / 591L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$312
sports 14% −$69
other 3% +$20
politics 0% −$45
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.2% -9.3% 62% 44% -11.3%
≤30d 145 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 46% -13.3%
≤90d 637 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 41% -12.6%
all 1042 -14.5% -22.7% 43% 35% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 35% -13.7%
10% -30.1% 26% -21.9%
15% -36.8% 18% -29.5%
20% -43.0% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses451 / 591
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1042 / 1042
History coverage133d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1042 Trades
no open positions (351 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $56 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +365%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $49 +$4 +7%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 −$4 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $37 +$4 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $31 +$7 +21%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$3 +136%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 92¢ $59 30h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 94¢ $56 33h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 99¢ $56 35h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 98¢ $55 35h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $11 38h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 94¢ $10 39h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 41h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 41h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 41h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 98¢ $52 42h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 93¢ $49 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 44h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins $0 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 27¢ $1 46h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $2 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 99¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 91¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 93¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner SELL Ground Zero 99¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 92¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Suzan Lamens 56¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 54¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 22¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 32¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2365 history records