Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d21…2fbb world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$5
other 36% +$16
politics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 0% -9.1%
all 40 +2.3% -7.4% 40% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 8% -8.2%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.0%
15% -24.4% 2% -25.0%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.84 per $1 lost it wins $8.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage304d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $65 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $124 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $82 +$10 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 04 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $36 +$6 +18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $66 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $65 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $57 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $55 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records