Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d21…59f7
world · 87 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$97 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$101 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage237d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 3 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$3
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? No 24¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Draw at halftime? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 +$7 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$13 +63%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $16 −$4 -27%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $5 +$18 +344%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $10 +$10 +101%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $115 −$48 -42%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 07 $22 +$4 +19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 06 $40 −$18 -45%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 +$13 +262%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$25 +81%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $9 −$9 -97%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Feb 01 $61 −$27 -44%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 05 $154 +$14 +9%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31? Dec 29 $195 +$52 +26%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 25 $305 −$285 -93%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by January 31? Dec 25 $90 −$82 -90%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Dec 24 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 19 $55 +$45 +82%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Dec 15 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Dec 11 $62 −$55 -89%
Will Russia enter Borova by December 31? Dec 08 $21 −$13 -60%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Dec 07 $137 −$104 -76%
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15? Dec 03 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Dec 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30? Dec 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30? Nov 27 $58 −$25 -44%
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30? Nov 27 $195 +$92 +47%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 27 $61 +$37 +61%
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Nov 26 $24 +$16 +70%
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30? Nov 26 $15 +$19 +124%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 26 $82 +$38 +47%
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $20 +$20 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% −$160
other 26% +$214
sports 4% +$62
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $4 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $27 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 27h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 27h
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $6 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 47% -10.2%
≤30d 22 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 50% -3.5%
≤90d 22 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 50% -3.5%
all 84 +5.0% -5.0% 46% 44% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 44% -7.6%
10% -14.1% 38% -16.4%
15% -22.4% 35% -24.5%
20% -30.0% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.74 · official $20.74 (match) · 351 history records