Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d26…6f74 sports 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$351 (-3%) realized −$327 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%307W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$541
other 9% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +17.7% +6.5% 53% 51% -7.2%
≤30d 174 +17.7% +6.5% 53% 51% -7.2%
≤90d 553 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 45% -12.5%
all 583 -0.9% -10.4% 53% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -13.2%
10% -18.9% 38% -21.5%
15% -26.8% 30% -29.1%
20% -33.9% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses307 / 276
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions11
Markets (closed)583 / 594
History coverage91d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 84¢ $60 $99 +$39 (+66%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ $107 $13 −$94 (-87%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 67¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+49%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 29¢ 80¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+176%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 46¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+102%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 20¢ $11 $3 −$7 (-68%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 71¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 44¢ 70¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 41¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Haiti 70¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 33¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 89¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $9 −$3 -37%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $12 −$3 -30%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $23 −$8 -35%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $9 +$6 +63%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $19 −$1 -6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $57 −$12 -21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$23 +58%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +30%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 +$1 +64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$11 -105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$2 -48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +27%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$2 -24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 +$25 +60%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $19 −$5 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $31 +$6 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $4 −$2 -58%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $4 +$1 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $9 +$5 +59%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $22 +$13 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $7 −$1 -13%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $36 +$5 +15%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $14 −$7 -50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $7 +$2 +22%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $6 −$3 -54%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $8 +$3 +37%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $13 −$5 -37%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $27 −$4 -15%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $83 −$60 -72%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $21 −$8 -37%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $39 −$4 -9%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $6 +$2 +36%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $3 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $12 +$10 +78%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $6 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 36m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 92¢ $6 36m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 29¢ $4 45m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 89¢ $1 56m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 41¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 44¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 33¢ $8 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 71¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 70¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $109 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 61¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $2 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) SELL Detroit Tigers 17¢ $2 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.20 · official $154.43 (match) · 2642 history records