Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d26…600a
crypto · 870 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$35 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$185
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses683 / 185
Open positions2
Markets (closed)868 / 870
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 868 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$223
14 days−$198
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 60¢ 30¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$44
politics 2% $0
other 1% −$7
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -16.8% -24.7% 51% 51% -22.6%
≤30d 828 -1.1% -10.6% 81% 64% -9.1%
≤90d 868 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 62% -9.0%
all 868 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 62% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 62% -9.0%
10% -18.9% 20% -17.7%
15% -26.7% 16% -25.6%
20% -33.9% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.20 · official $186.52 (match) · 1969 history records