Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d28…5dfb crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%88W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$22
other 24% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 130 -11.5% -19.9% 68% 45% -9.1%
all 130 -11.5% -19.9% 68% 45% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 45% -9.1%
10% -27.6% 18% -17.8%
15% -34.6% 8% -25.8%
20% -41.0% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,422
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses88 / 42
Open positions7
Markets (closed)130 / 137
History coverage61d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $379 $378 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $281 $280 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $263 $262 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $251 $240 −$11 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 08 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 08 $30 −$20 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 06 $36 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $25 −$9 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 01 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 01 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 1? May 01 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? Apr 30 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 30 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? Apr 29 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 28 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 27 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 21 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 21 $50 +$22 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $40 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$5 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $84 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $128 8h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $143 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $194 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $71 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $86 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $130 8h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $136 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $146 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $175 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,422.13 · official $1,422.24 (match) · 404 history records