Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d28…0d64 sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$772 (-5%) realized −$642 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%63W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$786
14 days−$818
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$969
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 36% -22.1%
≤30d 113 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 47% -14.8%
≤90d 113 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 47% -14.8%
all 113 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 47% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 47% -14.8%
10% -30.3% 41% -23.0%
15% -37.1% 34% -30.4%
20% -43.2% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$78 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$642
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses63 / 50
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage18d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 92¢ $168 $278 +$109 (+65%)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 56¢ 30¢ $56 $30 −$26 (-47%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 8¢ $126 $22 −$103 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $137 +$63 +46%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $292 +$8 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $39 +$11 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $197 +$3 +1%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $56 −$55 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $31 +$19 +62%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $283 +$117 +42%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $100 −$53 -53%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $59 +$41 +69%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $54 +$46 +86%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $345 +$155 +45%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $33 −$33 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $170 +$30 +18%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $490 +$10 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $78 −$77 -98%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $200 −$198 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $370 −$366 -99%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $406 −$322 -79%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $54 +$46 +86%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $499 +$1 +0%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $490 +$10 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $395 −$80 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $123 +$77 +62%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $172 +$28 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $179 +$21 +11%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $70 +$30 +44%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $19 +$12 +65%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 172.5 Jun 16 $41 +$20 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $190 −$188 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $41 −$38 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $129 −$128 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $194 +$81 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $40 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $14 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $63 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $57 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $168 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $137 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $137 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $155 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $95 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $39 34h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $38 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 35h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY New York Liberty 55¢ $56 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 52¢ $18 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $25 2d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $31 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $54 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $68 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 19¢ $19 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $46 3d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $6 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $283 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $40 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.50 · official $329.50 (match) · 355 history records