Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d2a…fb29 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
other 34% −$1
politics 16% +$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 11 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 11 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 0% -10.6%
all 34 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 −$3 -25%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $14 $0 -3%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 -3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $9 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 39h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $40 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $40 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $36 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $36 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $34 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records