Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d2d…c755 other 945 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,185 (+0%) realized +$1,185 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%916W / 21L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$119
14 days+$121
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$889
politics 23% +$2,284
world 17% +$53
crypto 15% −$2,002
economics 4% −$69
sports 3% +$10
tech 1% +$17
finance 1% +$2
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.0% -15.9% 92% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 20 -3.0% -12.3% 90% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 22 -2.6% -11.9% 91% 9% -8.9%
all 937 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$192 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized+$1,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses916 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)937 / 945
History coverage610d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 937 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $95 +$3 +4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3,818 +$118 +3%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $4,995 +$5 +0%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 18 $191 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $105 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
KK Studentski Centar vs. Mega Mozzart Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
New "The Boys" episode released by May 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10,988 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 26 $3 $0 +5%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 16? Mar 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 15? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 14? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hillary say "Under Oath" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5) Mar 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31? Mar 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $12,959 −$71 -1%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $7 $0 +0%
Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 28? Mar 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will NC State win the 2025-2026 ACC Men’s Basketball regular season ch Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aespa release a song in 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $500 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 38h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $755 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $989 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $489 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,563 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $47 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 2d
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $47 2d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $4,995 3d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $186 5d
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $200 5d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 15d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $0 16d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $2 16d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 49¢ $3 17d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 17d
KK Studentski Centar vs. Mega Mozzart BUY KK Studentski Centar 100¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.76 · official $514.76 (match) · 2356 history records