Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4D 0x4d2e…a166 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$220 (-59%) realized −$223 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip

Net edge-89%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-88.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-87.4%	-88.6%	0%	0%	-93.5%
≤30d	7	-87.4%	-88.6%	0%	0%	-93.5%
≤90d	7	-87.4%	-88.6%	0%	0%	-93.5%
all	7	-87.4%	-88.6%	0%	0%	-93.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-88.6%	0%	-93.5%
10%	-89.7%	0%	-94.1%
15%	-90.7%	0%	-94.7%
20%	-91.6%	0%	-95.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -93% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -87% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$33 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized−$223

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$115	$118	+$3 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$20	−$2	-12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$159	−$157	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$35	−$35	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$13	−$13	-98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$100	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$18	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$159	8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$13	35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$35	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.47 · official $118.47 (match) · 12 history records