Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d2f…61ee other 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,981 (-7%) realized −$2,994 · open +$1,013
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate77%243W / 72L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$9,681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$209
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,426
crypto 20% −$233
sports 9% −$443
world 2% +$149
politics 1% −$11
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 34 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 50% -15.9%
≤90d 35 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 49% -15.6%
all 315 -5.2% -14.3% 77% 17% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 17% -22.7%
10% -22.5% 14% -30.1%
15% -30.0% 9% -36.9%
20% -36.8% 6% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$66 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$9,681
Realized−$2,994
Unrealized+$1,013
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses243 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions47
Markets (closed)315 / 362
History coverage572d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $2,077 $2,276 +$199 (+10%)
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 60¢ $827 $976 +$149 (+18%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 79¢ 95¢ $656 $790 +$134 (+20%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 80¢ $463 $552 +$89 (+19%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $380 $479 +$99 (+26%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $387 $471 +$84 (+22%)
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $288 $360 +$72 (+25%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 76¢ $305 $343 +$38 (+13%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $254 $296 +$42 (+17%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $334 $270 −$64 (-19%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $255 $262 +$8 (+3%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $204 $215 +$11 (+5%)
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $194 $209 +$15 (+8%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $180 $199 +$19 (+11%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 82¢ $129 $162 +$33 (+26%)
Will RISE launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 46¢ $185 $140 −$45 (-25%)
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 No 68¢ 81¢ $114 $138 +$24 (+21%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+13%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 63¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 81¢ 92¢ $94 $106 +$13 (+14%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $86 $102 +$15 (+18%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 40¢ $80 $101 +$21 (+26%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 97¢ $77 $97 +$20 (+26%)
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 66¢ $61 $89 +$28 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $68 +$132 +195%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $75 −$30 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $69 +$30 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $307 −$129 -42%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $66 +$34 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $27 +$8 +29%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $102 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $70 +$41 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $256 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$62 +119%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $35 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $182 +$18 +10%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $35 +$15 +43%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $69 +$38 +55%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $59 −$7 -12%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 02 $69 +$4 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 26 $98 −$20 -20%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $213 −$213 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 19 $734 −$506 -69%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 17 $873 −$621 -71%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 17 $564 −$203 -36%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 30 $334 −$146 -44%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 30 $72 −$48 -67%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 14 $77 −$23 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $197 1h
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 14h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 18h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 22h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $12 39h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $18 39h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 39h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $16 39h
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $35 39h
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 39h
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $66 39h
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 39h
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $21 39h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $15 39h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $102 39h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $121 39h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $7 39h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $78 39h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $80 39h
Will RISE launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $67 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $50 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 45¢ $44 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $75 9d
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 40¢ $10 10d
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 40¢ $0 10d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 12d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 12d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $54 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 13d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,680.87 · official $9,681.03 (match) · 1129 history records