Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d30…14f2 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 36L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$32
sports 21% +$6
other 18% +$4
world 16% +$4
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$18
culture 0% −$2
finance 0% +$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 42% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +18.3% +7.1% 46% 7% -9.0%
all 77 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 4% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage488d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $172 $172 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $11 $0 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $157 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $227 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $172 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $561 +$2 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $117 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $169 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $178 +$15 +8%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $157 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $157 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $22 +$5 +22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $95 −$1 -2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 14 $3 +$17 +592%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $3,067 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $989 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $979 +$11 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $9 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $6 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will James Monroe Inglehart win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a M Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in May? Jun 06 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $13 $0 +4%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 21 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $172 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $153 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $157 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $54 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $38 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $94 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $164 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $172 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $172 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $78 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $73 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.77 · official $171.74 (match) · 285 history records