Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4d32…8a23 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2
other 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 10 -29.1% -35.8% 70% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -42.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -47.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -52.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage152d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Parma: Lucia Bronzetti vs Camila Osorio Jun 28 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Pune: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Duje Ajdukovic Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cornell Big Red (-6.5) Jan 31 $120 $0 +0%
Colorado State Rams vs. San Diego State Aztecs Jan 29 $300 +$1 +0%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $300 $0 +0%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Jan 28 $295 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $200 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $300 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $500 1h
Parma: Lucia Bronzetti vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 94¢ $1 45d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) BUY Liverpool FC 99¢ $1 120d
Pune: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 91¢ $1 120d
Spread: Cornell Big Red (-6.5) BUY Cornell Big Red 100¢ $120 148d
Colorado State Rams vs. San Diego State Aztecs BUY San Diego State Aztecs 100¢ $300 149d
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 100¢ $300 150d
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks BUY Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 99¢ $95 151d
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks BUY Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 99¢ $100 151d
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks BUY Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 99¢ $100 151d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 BUY Inner Circle 97¢ $1 151d
Dota 2: Valinor vs NoLogoJustMMR (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe BUY Valinor 94¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.00 · official $1,001.00 (match) · 20 history records