Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d32…9dfc sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90,396 (-8%) realized −$86,734 · open −$3,662
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate54%56W / 47L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,048per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$5,486est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$116,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,762
7 days+$9,191
14 days+$7,050
30 days−$13,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$5,754
sports 46% −$95,449
crypto 1% −$28
weather 0% −$1,521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.4% -30.7% 53% 32% +3.0%
≤30d 48 -31.6% -38.1% 54% 21% -13.9%
≤90d 103 -18.1% -25.9% 54% 21% -19.2%
all 103 -18.1% -25.9% 54% 21% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 21% -19.2%
10% -33.0% 15% -26.9%
15% ← realistic here -39.4% 13% -34.0%
20% -45.4% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$5,655) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$825 vs −$2,909 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$116,600
Realized−$86,734
Unrealized−$3,662
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses56 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$5,486
Open positions15
Markets (closed)103 / 118
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$9,048
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $29,318 $28,485 −$833 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $10,089 $22,893 +$12,804 (+127%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20,209 $13,206 −$7,003 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $13,796 $12,958 −$838 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,768 $7,006 −$2,762 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $11,903 $6,882 −$5,021 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $5,525 $6,702 +$1,177 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,296 $5,270 −$26 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,200 $3,650 −$1,550 (-30%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,901 $2,914 +$1,013 (+53%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,927 $2,790 −$137 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,388 $1,798 −$590 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,100 $1,350 −$750 (-36%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 84¢ 92¢ $454 $501 +$47 (+10%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 90¢ 98¢ $102 $111 +$9 (+9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $84 −$36 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5,655 +$6,126 +108%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $188 −$183 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $366 +$68 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,319 +$616 +27%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $263 +$299 +114%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $143 −$140 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,615 +$2,721 +104%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $390 −$390 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $104 −$102 -98%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 24 $33,466 +$237 +1%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $151 +$125 +83%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $20,685 +$21 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $3,761 +$801 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $234 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,638 −$2,638 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,403 +$139 +4%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $17,947 +$17 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21,553 +$22 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $267 +$158 +59%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $6,440 +$6 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28,195 +$28 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6,664 +$7 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,565 +$5 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $820 −$820 -100%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 12 $178 −$173 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $1,107 −$1,101 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? Jun 12 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $13,352 +$2,467 +18%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $17,691 +$18 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $55,251 +$444 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20,496 −$19,459 -95%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $249 −$249 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $999 +$19 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $463 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $439 −$15 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $17,703 +$122 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $8,098 51m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $84 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $10,398 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $8,549 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $8,817 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $675 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $911 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $32 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $646 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $42 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $28 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $27 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $828 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $369 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $92 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $28 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $19 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $240 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $46 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116,600.17 · official $116,611.37 (match) · 3500 history records