Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d33…1e96
world · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage87d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 56¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$6 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $23 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $16 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 27 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May May 06 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $4 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 30 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will March 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Apr 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Toma Mar 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 21? Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 88% −$1
crypto 8% −$3
tech 2% $0
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $9 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $8 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 81¢ $8 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $9 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 46¢ $7 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 41¢ $6 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $6 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $7 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $7 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 79¢ $7 34d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $7 34d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $2 38d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May SELL No 91¢ $2 38d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $4 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 97¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 33% -11.3%
≤30d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 17% -8.5%
≤90d 33 -12.9% -21.2% 70% 12% -11.4%
all 33 -12.9% -21.2% 70% 12% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 12% -11.4%
10% -28.7% 0% -19.9%
15% -35.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -41.9% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.27 · official $8.27 (match) · 93 history records