Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d34…1ebd crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$237 (+12%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 60L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day151.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 28% -0.2%
≤30d 89 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 28% -0.2%
≤90d 89 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 28% -0.2%
all 89 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 28% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 28% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 27% -9.7%
15% -11.4% 25% -18.4%
20% -20.0% 20% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day151.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $220 +$10 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $137 +$98 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$36 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $190 −$35 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$5 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $74 +$40 +54%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $185 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$16 +311%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$11 +54%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$11 -59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$360 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$23 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$25 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $58 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $180 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $44 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records