Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d38…96fd
other · 202 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses118 / 60
Open positions24
Markets (closed)178 / 202
History coverage159d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%
Chart Positions 24 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 17¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+135%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 74¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$11 +527%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? Mar 26 $2 +$4 +212%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Mar 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 26 $12 −$4 -29%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Mar 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Mar 26 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 26 $60 −$24 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Mar 26 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? Mar 26 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 26 $255 −$131 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Mar 26 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 20 Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 26 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 25 $53 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Mar 22 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $7 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$27
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 74¢ $2 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 11d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $1 13d
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 13d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 13d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 13d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $5 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 100% +8.1%
≤30d 6 +49.3% +35.1% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 54 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 19% -34.2%
all 178 +3.9% -6.0% 66% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 34% -10.3%
10% -15.0% 22% -18.9%
15% -23.2% 15% -26.7%
20% -30.7% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.52 · official $84.52 (match) · 674 history records