Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4d39…c90a other 907 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,175 (+3%) realized +$5,183 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%863W / 42L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$1,394
14 days+$2,485
30 days+$2,994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$4,541
sports 26% +$604
world 1% −$6
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +135.4% +113.0% 97% 19% -6.6%
≤30d 185 +82.5% +65.1% 89% 14% -6.9%
≤90d 897 +20.4% +8.9% 96% 6% -7.6%
all 905 +20.2% +8.7% 95% 6% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 6% -7.6%
10% -1.7% 3% -16.4%
15% -11.2% 3% -24.5%
20% -19.9% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.29 per $1 lost it wins $8.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$5,183
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses863 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)905 / 907
History coverage220d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 905 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals No 95¢ 80¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
João Neves: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $767 +$8 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Second half draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4,227 +$21 +0%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $223 +$2 +1%
Manuel Ugarte: 1+ assists Jun 16 $114 $0 +0%
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 16 $3,839 +$39 +1%
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $483 +$5 +1%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $174 +$2 +1%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $116 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 15 $921 +$9 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Alex Baena: 1+ assists Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $3,801 +$38 +1%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $602 +$7 +1%
Evann Guessand: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9,146 +$661 +7%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Antonio Sanabria: 2+ shots Jun 13 $8 +$4 +46%
Alphonso Davies: 4+ shots Jun 12 $59 +$3 +5%
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Tajon Buchanan: 5+ shots Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Tajon Buchanan: 4+ shots Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? Jun 12 $1 +$13 +2404%
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists Jun 12 $7,010 +$238 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +472%
Alphonso Davies: 2+ goals Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $55 +$1 +2%
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots Jun 12 $48 +$1 +1%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots Jun 12 $143 +$1 +1%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +139%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Second half draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Yang Hyunjun: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Cho Guesung: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Lee Donggyeong: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $108 +$13 +12%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 12 $0 $0 +30%
Will David Raya score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Erik Lira: 1+ assists Jun 11 $222 +$2 +1%
César Huerta: 1+ assists Jun 11 $7,379 +$187 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 3m
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $54 5m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $211 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $255 2h
João Neves: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $211 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $65 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Second half draw? BUY No 99¢ $1 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $155 23h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $62 23h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $3 23h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $3 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $8 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $14 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $204 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $62 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $155 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $2 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $187 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $14 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $87 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $45 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $3 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.23 · official $82.61 · 2728 history records