Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4d3a…64b7 sports 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,995 (+6%) realized +$18,995 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%164W / 162L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$9,739
sports 48% +$8,188
world 2% +$1,035
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 32% 16% -8.6%
≤30d 26 +8.8% -1.5% 38% 27% -7.6%
≤90d 49 +2.4% -7.4% 53% 43% -31.4%
all 326 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 48% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 48% -4.0%
10% -14.2% 44% -13.2%
15% -22.5% 40% -21.6%
20% -30.1% 37% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,020) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,080 vs −$977 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$18,995
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses164 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions2
Markets (closed)326 / 328
History coverage264d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $174 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $306 −$18 -6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $310 −$23 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $360 −$17 -5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $360 −$26 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $790 $0 -0%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $635 +$47 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $610 $0 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $140 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $285 −$3 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $836 +$12 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $630 +$10 +2%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $310 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $600 $0 -0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $520 −$10 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $500 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $20 +$11 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 06 $20 +$14 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $102 +$98 +96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-03? May 31 $18 +$22 +117%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $25 +$5 +20%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $23 +$7 +32%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $27 +$3 +12%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Mar 30 $20 +$2 +9%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $20 +$2 +12%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $20 +$3 +16%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $20 +$6 +30%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $20 +$9 +47%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Mar 30 $20 +$13 +67%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 30 $20 +$16 +82%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 29 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 25 $810 −$810 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $20 +$5 +24%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $20 +$9 +45%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $140 +$106 +75%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $560 +$440 +79%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 0m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 7m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 8m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $4 10m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $41 10m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $11 26m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 27m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 32m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $9 41m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $15 41m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $24 43m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $2 45m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $29 50m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $17 53m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $216 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 29¢ $229 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $343 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Under 34¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Under 34¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Under 34¢ $314 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $24 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.19 · official $4.96 (match) · 2037 history records