Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d3a…8063 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-15%) realized −$49 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$46
sports 13% −$50
crypto 8% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.9% -31.1% 45% 45% -26.7%
≤30d 11 -23.9% -31.1% 45% 45% -26.7%
≤90d 11 -23.9% -31.1% 45% 45% -26.7%
all 11 -23.9% -31.1% 45% 45% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 45% -26.7%
10% -37.7% 45% -33.7%
15% -43.7% 45% -40.1%
20% -49.2% 36% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.41 · official $48.41 (match) · 18 history records