Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4d3c…0aab other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$605 (-10%) realized −$597 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days−$997
14 days−$651
30 days−$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$737
sports 8% +$79
crypto 5% +$17
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +21.1% +9.6% 52% 52% -26.7%
≤30d 32 +25.6% +13.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
≤90d 32 +25.6% +13.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
all 32 +25.6% +13.7% 53% 53% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 53% -20.2%
10% +2.8% 44% -27.9%
15% -7.1% 44% -34.8%
20% -16.2% 38% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$167 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$597
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$43 -41%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 +$31 +66%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$205 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$136 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 +$28 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $413 +$178 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$94 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $209 −$207 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,780 −$1,775 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $213 +$196 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$15 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$136 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 −$47 -66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $278 −$28 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $510 +$68 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 +$205 +100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $209 +$346 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $201 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $74 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $185 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $156 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $592 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $121 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $293 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $293 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.48 · official $692.48 (match) · 87 history records