Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d3e…e3f2 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$27
politics 24% +$4
other 22% −$2
sports 11% −$1
finance 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 23% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 68 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 86 -1.1% -10.6% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 64
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage334d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $180 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $121 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $120 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $232 −$2 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $341 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $126 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $160 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $135 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $141 −$6 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $142 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $90 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $301 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $252 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $300 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $132 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $19 −$10 -54%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $69 −$8 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $141 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $142 −$2 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $141 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $345 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $315 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $313 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $116 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $179 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $150 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $166 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $318 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $124 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $136 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $136 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $105 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $121 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $84 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $91 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $81 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $97 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $122 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $122 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $19 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $98 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $118 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $135 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $135 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.79 · official $123.82 (match) · 361 history records