Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d3e…82a1 crypto 1719 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate84%1439W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$246
14 days−$282
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$89
other 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -4.2% -13.3% 78% 45% -16.6%
≤30d 1205 -7.5% -16.3% 77% 42% -13.5%
≤90d 1719 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 46% -10.4%
all 1719 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 46% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 46% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 23% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 8% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1439 / 280
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1719 / 1719
History coverage46d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records