Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d40…561e crypto 1940 markets active 5h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%1034W / 688L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$252
14 days+$550
30 days+$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$725
other 7% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 +14.4% +3.5% 74% 74% +4.1%
≤30d 1263 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 71% +6.8%
≤90d 1722 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +2.9%
all 1722 +9.9% -0.5% 60% 60% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 60% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 60% -7.0%
15% -18.8% 58% -16.0%
20% -26.7% 38% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1034 / 688
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1722 / 1940
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1722 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3099 history records