Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d41…638d world 51 markets active 5h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
other 25% −$2
politics 20% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 0% -10.2%
all 51 -4.0% -13.1% 31% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage318d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $73 −$3 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $47 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $67 −$3 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will US airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $25 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $39 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records