Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d42…df8b sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%80W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$47
sports 35% +$16
crypto 16% +$13
world 4% +$1
tech 2% +$5
finance 2% −$9
politics 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -43.9% -49.3% 40% 40% -52.6%
≤30d 39 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 46% -24.1%
≤90d 55 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 40% -34.6%
all 194 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -13.6%
10% -24.7% 38% -21.9%
15% -31.9% 29% -29.5%
20% -38.6% 25% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses80 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)194 / 203
History coverage289d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 66¢ 95¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+43%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 13¢ 28¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+112%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 54¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 25 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 24 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$3 +119%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 18 $1 +$4 +276%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $2 +$3 +180%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? May 17 $4 +$1 +40%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 17 $4 +$3 +66%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 17 $6 +$4 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $3 +$2 +62%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 06 $1 +$4 +354%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Pisa SC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 29 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $4 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 77¢ $4 13h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $3 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 25h
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 21d
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 21d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 21d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 21d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 21d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 13¢ $1 21d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 22d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 79¢ $4 22d
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $4 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 47¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.53 · official $32.53 (match) · 304 history records