Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d43…7a2c crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$135 (+17%) realized +$140 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%8W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$14
other 7% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -8.3% -17.0% 12% 12% -23.3%
≤30d 64 -8.3% -17.0% 12% 12% -23.3%
≤90d 64 -8.3% -17.0% 12% 12% -23.3%
all 64 -8.3% -17.0% 12% 12% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 12% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 12% -30.6%
15% -32.2% 12% -37.3%
20% -38.9% 12% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$11 · ×6.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses8 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 18¢ 16¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$63 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$85 +541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$68 +643%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.80 · official $41.55 · 115 history records