Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d45…1ed1 crypto 18 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,177 (-34%) realized −$1,090 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,184
sports 10% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 19% -47.0%
≤30d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 19% -47.0%
≤90d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 19% -47.0%
all 16 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 19% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 19% -47.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 19% -52.0%
15% -40.6% 12% -56.7%
20% -46.4% 6% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$174 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$1,090
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 6¢ 6¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 8¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $420 −$300 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,880 −$938 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $106 +$599 +565%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wo Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $451 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $492 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.03 · official $113.03 (match) · 87 history records