Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4d4b…a05d crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,574 (+11%) realized +$1,574 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%46W / 47L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$1,324
14 days+$1,324
30 days+$1,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$276
other 17% +$999
sports 3% −$130
politics 1% +$10
finance 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +62.1% +46.6% 43% 43% +27.6%
≤30d 23 +62.1% +46.6% 43% 43% +27.6%
≤90d 93 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 47% -2.1%
all 93 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 47% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 47% -2.1%
10% -9.2% 44% -11.5%
15% -18.0% 40% -20.0%
20% -26.0% 33% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$114 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses46 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage58d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $94 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $134 −$68 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $64 −$63 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $154 +$36 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$56 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $63 −$3 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$81 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $134 +$83 +62%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,229 +$1,735 +141%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $203 +$35 +17%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 10 $21 +$19 +93%
Will Alexander Volkov win by KO or TKO? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 09 $207 −$104 -50%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 09 $815 −$612 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 30 $11 +$17 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 30 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 30 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 30 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 30 $114 +$99 +87%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 30 $209 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 30 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 30 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 30 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 30 $208 +$103 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 30 $103 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 30 $207 +$164 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 30 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 30 $209 −$209 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records