Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d4c…8b3c sports 168 markets active 6d ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-17%) realized −$22 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%64W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
sports 34% −$6
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
world 5% −$6
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -94.1%
≤90d 75 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 37% -35.7%
all 120 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 41% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 41% -24.5%
10% -25.5% 28% -31.8%
15% -32.7% 23% -38.3%
20% -39.3% 20% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions48
Markets (closed)120 / 168
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $1 +$2 +249%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $1 +$3 +317%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 24 $1 +$2 +216%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $1 +$3 +262%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $1 $0 +36%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $1 $0 +14%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House press Apr 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $1 $0 +14%
Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House pre Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House pre Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 03 $1 +$5 +550%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $1 $0 +14%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars (W) Mar 30 $1 +$2 +210%
Will Leavitt say "Fake News" during the next White House Press Briefin Mar 30 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House Pre Mar 30 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Mar 30 $1 +$1 +128%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $1 $0 +35%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Mar 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 27 $1 $0 +19%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Mar 27 $1 $0 +18%
Spread: Islanders (-1.5) Mar 26 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) Mar 26 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.39 · official $76.39 (match) · 327 history records