Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d4f…2605 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,096 (-60%) realized −$2,932 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$940
30 days−$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,733
other 49% −$2,455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$503 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$2,932
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage186d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $192 $58 −$133 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $589 −$250 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $698 −$690 -99%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $383 −$50 -13%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $318 −$134 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 23¢ $256 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 70¢ $1,257 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 8¢ $26 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $307 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $698 9d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $1,091 107d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 23¢ $25 142d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Fiziev 55¢ $50 142d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Tuivasa 15¢ $50 142d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Teixeira 75¢ $317 142d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Teixeira 82¢ $284 142d
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Teixeira 62¢ $49 142d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 5¢ $84 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? SELL Yes 3¢ $184 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $400 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $168 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,250 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.09 · official $127.09 (match) · 23 history records