Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d50…e29f sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,159 (+22%) realized +$1,161 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$1,117
14 days+$1,117
30 days+$1,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$398
other 26% +$717
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 67% +10.9%
≤30d 24 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 67% +10.9%
≤90d 24 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 67% +10.9%
all 24 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 67% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 67% +10.9%
10% -10.8% 58% +0.3%
15% -19.4% 50% -9.4%
20% -27.3% 29% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$102 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized+$1,161
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $259 $257 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $301 +$56 +18%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $403 +$160 +40%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 −$6 -6%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 +$83 +82%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $119 −$117 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $203 +$154 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $202 +$84 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $594 +$202 +34%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $229 −$226 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $506 +$327 +65%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $121 −$119 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $357 +$165 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $201 +$52 +26%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $139 +$67 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $223 +$113 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $262 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 9h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $301 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $403 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $96 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 20h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 20h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 36h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $119 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $357 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $102 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $203 37h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $91 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $503 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $202 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $229 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 60¢ $506 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $100 3d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $101 3d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $19 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $202 4d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $156 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 95¢ $200 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 79¢ $201 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $139 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $201 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.88 · official $256.88 (match) · 48 history records