Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d52…d16c crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+78%) realized +$76 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$159
world 19% −$50
other 9% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤30d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤90d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 25% 25% -46.3%
all 4 -9.6% -18.2% 25% 25% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -46.3%
10% -26.0% 25% -51.5%
15% -33.2% 25% -56.1%
20% -39.7% 25% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$33 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 17¢ $75 $233 +$158 (+211%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $53 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$51 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 100¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 26¢ $20 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $80 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 55¢ $26 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.94 · official $275.08 (match) · 11 history records