Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d53…200e sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$125 (+8%) realized +$158 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$117
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$74
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +31.1% +18.6% 56% 56% -2.2%
≤30d 28 +26.4% +14.4% 54% 54% -2.9%
≤90d 28 +26.4% +14.4% 54% 54% -2.9%
all 28 +26.4% +14.4% 54% 54% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 54% -2.9%
10% +3.4% 54% -12.2%
15% -6.5% 54% -20.6%
20% -15.7% 54% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$57 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 14¢ $48 $15 −$33 (-69%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$63 +124%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $154 −$152 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$77 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $242 −$163 -67%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 +$127 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$163 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 +$61 +165%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $29 +$29 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$33 +129%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$10 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$29 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 +$50 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$46 +181%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $34 +$66 +197%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 −$78 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$32 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$27 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $49 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $61 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $154 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $79 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $242 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $112 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $99 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $37 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $29 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $9 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $15 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $29 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $46 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $25 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $79 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $34 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $27 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.46 · official $23.46 (match) · 46 history records