Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d54…4d13 sports 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,616 (-6%) realized −$11,638 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%272W / 390L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$624est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,422
7 days+$2,702
14 days+$2,702
30 days+$2,701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$7,163
crypto 14% −$2,699
other 7% −$1,331
world 1% −$171
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +5.3% -4.8% 53% 39% -3.0%
≤30d 91 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 38% -3.0%
≤90d 446 -47.6% -52.6% 25% 17% -34.3%
all 662 -9.3% -18.0% 41% 33% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 33% -15.0%
10% -25.8% 27% -23.1%
15% -33.0% 24% -30.5%
20% -39.6% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$139 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$2,383
Realized−$11,638
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses272 / 390
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$624
Open positions2
Markets (closed)662 / 669
History coverage242d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 97¢ 98¢ $2,347 $2,371 +$24 (+1%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $462 +$23 +5%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $134 +$167 +125%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,870 +$120 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,417 +$49 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,384 +$84 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $206 +$7 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $230 +$10 +4%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $270 +$229 +85%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $160 +$339 +212%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $132 +$307 +233%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $365 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 18 $17 +$3 +18%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17 Jun 18 $102 +$315 +308%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $122 +$145 +119%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$149 +295%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,526 +$171 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,518 +$45 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,303 +$224 +17%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $233 −$11 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $1,098 −$52 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $24 +$11 +47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $245 −$19 -8%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $93 +$185 +198%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $224 +$176 +78%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 −$239 -96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $245 +$254 +104%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $128 +$128 +100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $328 −$154 -47%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $97 +$123 +127%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,492 +$146 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,309 +$178 +14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $713 −$713 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,186 +$130 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,130 +$58 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $485 0m
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $301 0m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $1,901 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $20 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $198 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $134 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $59 3m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $36 3m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $120 19m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $342 27m
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $13 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Tota BUY 21¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $2,870 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,466 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $68 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $573 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $55 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $39 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $45 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $90 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $57 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $145 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $90 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $253 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,382.81 · official $2,408.62 · 2600 history records