Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d54…55e8 other 48 markets active 3h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$32
other 26% +$5
politics 14% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 17% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 14 +16.4% +5.3% 36% 14% -6.1%
≤90d 14 +16.4% +5.3% 36% 14% -6.1%
all 48 +5.5% -4.6% 46% 6% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 6% -7.3%
10% -13.7% 6% -16.2%
15% -22.0% 6% -24.3%
20% -29.7% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.94 per $1 lost it wins $10.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage323d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $62 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $72 +$3 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $72 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $132 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $16 +$27 +168%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $98 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $48 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Dec 20 $48 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 August 4–10? Aug 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 08 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $10 +$4 +46%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 06 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $62 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $62 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $68 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $65 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $41 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $17 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $17 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $72 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $15 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $63 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $63 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $72 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $76 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $75 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records