Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d58…1e5c sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-14%) realized +$33 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$43
sports 36% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
≤30d 7 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
≤90d 7 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
all 7 -49.4% -54.2% 29% 29% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 29% -65.4%
10% -58.6% 29% -68.7%
15% -62.6% 29% -71.7%
20% -66.3% 14% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -96%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$5 +89%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 24 $11 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.47 · official $139.11 · 17 history records