Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d58…e222 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
politics 19% −$3
crypto 18% $0
other 17% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage285d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $29 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $14 +$1 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Sep 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 19 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $6 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $23 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $17 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $13 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $17 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $12 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $29 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records