Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d59…1e2f crypto 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$257 (+10%) realized +$227 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate54%197W / 167L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$69
14 days+$235
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$37
politics 24% −$30
world 17% +$288
other 12% +$115
economics 3% +$37
sports 0% +$31
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.0% -31.2% 54% 23% +18.4%
≤30d 103 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 26% +37.3%
≤90d 234 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 17% +5.5%
all 364 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 19% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 19% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 13% -0.9%
15% -28.5% 12% -10.5%
20% -35.5% 10% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses197 / 167
Open positions91
Markets (closed)364 / 455
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 7¢ 30¢ $9 $39 +$29 (+311%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 24¢ 73¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+200%)
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 42¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 82¢ 96¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 27¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? No 6¢ 7¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? No 13¢ 13¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 71¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 18¢ 40¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+122%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? No 21¢ 63¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+205%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 60¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $36 +$80 +223%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $65 +$26 +40%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -46%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +163%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$28 +276%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY No 17¢ $1 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 4¢ $1 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 29m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 31m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 38m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 42m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 43m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 44m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 59m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 6¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 7¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.63 · official $382.92 (match) · 3500 history records