Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d59…b44c world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$5
other 14% +$2
politics 7% $0
sports 6% +$2
crypto 5% +$1
weather 2% +$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -10.5%
all 44 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 9% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage482d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $32 −$7 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $28 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $31 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $7 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Apr 26 $2 +$1 +87%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 25 $7 $0 -7%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $18 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 +14%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $19 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $19 $0 +0%
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Mar 20 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27 $17 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 27 $16 +$2 +12%
Cleveland State vs. Wright State Feb 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parlia Feb 26 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $27 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $27 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $26 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $26 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $36 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $36 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $35 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $35 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.25 · official $27.25 (match) · 133 history records