Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5a…3fc9 crypto 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%77W / 2L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
tech 0% −$3
other 0% $0
world 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 29% -8.7%
≤90d 29 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 7% -9.3%
all 79 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses77 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage242d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 05 $6 +$2 +33%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 05 $6 +$2 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? Jun 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? Apr 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $106 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? Mar 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? Mar 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 11? Mar 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 47h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $113 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $114 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $111 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $112 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $94 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 45d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $6 47d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 71¢ $6 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $103 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $103 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 59d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $103 74d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 99¢ $3 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $108 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $108 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $106 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $102 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $102 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $98 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.57 · official $112.57 (match) · 162 history records