Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5d…60f3 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%11W / 57L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$70
other 18% −$2
economics 8% −$14
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$12
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 3 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -22.9%
all 68 -12.1% -20.5% 16% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 16% -10.9%
10% -28.1% 15% -19.4%
15% -35.0% 15% -27.2%
20% -41.4% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses11 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage698d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 29 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Feb 09 $2 +$3 +156%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club beat Real Madrid? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ipswich win on 2025-03-15? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? Jan 31 $2 +$5 +300%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? Jan 29 $2 +$3 +163%
Will Bayern Munich beat Feyenoord? Jan 24 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Leicester win on 2025-01-18? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-01-14? Jan 17 $1 +$3 +203%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? Jan 14 $2 +$2 +150%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-29? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-14? Dec 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Dec 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat RB Salzburg? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-08? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? Dec 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $0 +$73 +18302%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? Dec 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? Nov 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will AC Milan beat Slovan Bratislava? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle vs. West Ham end in a draw? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Nov 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zouhair Maghzaoui win the Tunisia presidential election? Nov 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Sep 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Leicester City beat Fulham? Sep 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Patriots? Sep 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Not going back" during DNC speech? Aug 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Crypto "or "Bitcoin" during Friday speech? Aug 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" at his rally? Aug 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at his rally? Aug 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 80¢ $38 1h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 81¢ $2 2h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 81¢ $1 5h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 81¢ $42 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 39d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 55d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 82d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY No 39¢ $2 122d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $12 139d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? BUY No 39¢ $2 156d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 184d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 220d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 248d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 299d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside BUY Yes $1 299d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $1 384d
Will Athletic Club beat Real Madrid? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 434d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? BUY No $5 466d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $9 468d
Will Ipswich win on 2025-03-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 471d
Will Manchester City vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 502d
Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? BUY No 48¢ $1 513d
Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 515d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? BUY No 38¢ $2 520d
Will Bayern Munich beat Feyenoord? BUY No 27¢ $1 522d
Will Leicester win on 2025-01-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 527d
Will West Ham win on 2025-01-14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 530d
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? BUY No 40¢ $2 539d
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 546d
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 549d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $1.21 (match) · 140 history records