Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5e…7f71 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,587 (-44%) realized −$1,587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,802
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -30.4% -37.0% 48% 14% -55.9%
≤30d 21 -30.4% -37.0% 48% 14% -55.9%
≤90d 21 -30.4% -37.0% 48% 14% -55.9%
all 21 -30.4% -37.0% 48% 14% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 14% -55.9%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 10% -60.2%
15% -48.6% 10% -64.0%
20% -53.6% 5% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$167 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $1,233 −$1,178 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $213 −$200 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,756 −$311 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records