Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d5f…b380 other 1001 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,755 (+9%) realized +$2,650 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%281W / 721L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,645
sports 29% −$233
politics 3% −$452
weather 1% −$245
tech 1% +$8
world 1% +$56
crypto 0% −$53
culture 0% +$40
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -38.4% -44.3% 19% 15% -33.4%
≤30d 312 -2.3% -11.6% 26% 23% -11.2%
≤90d 900 +1.5% -8.2% 28% 26% -13.5%
all 1002 +1.2% -8.4% 28% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 26% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 24% -19.3%
15% -25.2% 21% -27.1%
20% -32.5% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$18 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,231
Realized+$2,650
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses281 / 721
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1002 / 1001
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $260 $215 −$45 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $138 $206 +$68 (+49%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 37¢ 88¢ $74 $175 +$101 (+136%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 81¢ 100¢ $105 $130 +$24 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $34 $72 +$38 (+111%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $19 $65 +$46 (+234%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $85 $58 −$28 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $82 $56 −$26 (-32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 90¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-47%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-49%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$25 -2426%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Jun 29 $4 −$7 -168%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$10 -1872%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 26? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 26? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 26? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 34 million views on day 2 Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
between 35 and 37 million Jun 29 $0 −$15 -60957%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $64 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $42 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $111 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $44 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 98¢ $170 17h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 95¢ $66 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $20 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 64¢ $25 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $5 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $9 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $9 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 30¢ $5 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $110 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $150 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 1¢ $1 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $19 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $7 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $36 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $34 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $11 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $6 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $26 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $15 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $6 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 44¢ $44 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 90¢ $11 27h
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 23¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,230.95 · official $1,239.27 (match) · 3500 history records