Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d60…be72 sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-5%) realized −$816 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%182W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$33
14 days−$85
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,274
crypto 8% −$13
other 2% +$15
finance 2% +$21
politics 1% −$23
tech 0% −$45
culture 0% −$5
economics 0% +$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -67.3% -70.4% 17% 17% -80.1%
≤30d 14 -34.1% -40.4% 36% 36% -21.7%
≤90d 23 -29.2% -35.9% 35% 35% -16.7%
all 352 -2.8% -12.0% 52% 49% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 49% -17.9%
10% -20.4% 41% -25.8%
15% -28.1% 32% -33.0%
20% -35.2% 26% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$816
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses182 / 170
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage248d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner OG 41¢ 100¢ $44 $107 +$63 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $4 +$3 +70%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$7 -74%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +160%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $55 +$56 +101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $26 −$26 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $44 −$43 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $56 −$26 -47%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $52 +$55 +105%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $83 −$20 -24%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $38 +$65 +172%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $44 +$26 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 14 $22 +$5 +21%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $62 +$4 +6%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $10 +$12 +123%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $10 +$11 +114%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 14 $26 +$61 +238%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7AM ET Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2AM ET Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8AM ET Feb 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12AM ET Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11PM ET Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7AM ET Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9AM ET Feb 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 06 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 34¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 65¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 13¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 49¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 18¢ $10 32h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 13¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 58¢ $4 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 16¢ $2 4d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 59¢ $9 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 40¢ $8 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $10 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $15 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 8d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY Ignite 30¢ $8 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY Ignite 43¢ $15 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner BUY Ignite 1¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner SELL GG Boom 99¢ $42 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner BUY GG Boom 25¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner BUY GG Boom 70¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner BUY GG Boom 70¢ $6 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $27 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 49¢ $55 14d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $13 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.27 · official $107.27 (match) · 1009 history records