Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d61…77e3 crypto 740 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$647 (-7%) realized −$617 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%318W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$74
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,055
other 2% +$61
sports 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 42% -10.0%
≤30d 289 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -28.7%
≤90d 641 -16.7% -24.7% 39% 38% -24.8%
all 737 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 42% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -19.8%
10% -25.6% 39% -27.4%
15% -32.8% 34% -34.4%
20% -39.4% 28% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$617
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses318 / 419
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)737 / 740
History coverage217d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? No 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$44 +284%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$55 +214%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $32 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $39 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$9 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $67 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 6¢ $5 16m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 18m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 32m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 33¢ $32 43m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 15¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 24h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 26h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 1¢ $1 26h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 1¢ $1 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 76¢ $19 41h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $13 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $59 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 33¢ $81 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.17 (match) · 1858 history records