trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 0% | 0% | -12.3% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 29% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 29% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 25 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 52% | 12% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.1% | 12% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -16.0% | 8% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -24.1% | 8% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -31.6% | 4% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $31 | $31 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 24 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $9 | −$2 | -20% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $35 | −$2 | -5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 04 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $165 | +$1 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $94 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 01 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 31 | $48 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $144 | +$2 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 26 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? | Apr 19 | $5 | −$3 | -64% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 18 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 18 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 04 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| sugaR vs. Jack.Poor | Mar 03 | $3 | +$3 | +89% |
| Roma vs. FC Porto | Mar 03 | $4 | +$2 | +45% |