Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d67…40e2
crypto · 130 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$181 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$181 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 0 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$23
14 days−$44
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $158 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$24 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $64 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $36 +$19 +54%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$7 -89%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% $0
politics 11% +$5
world 9% −$174
other 5% +$9
sports 2% −$23
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $136 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $112 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 30% -11.6%
≤30d 97 -5.1% -14.2% 52% 43% -9.9%
≤90d 97 -5.1% -14.2% 52% 43% -9.9%
all 129 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 45% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 45% -18.3%
10% -21.4% 41% -26.1%
15% -29.0% 34% -33.3%
20% -35.9% 27% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records