Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d67…ab42 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,147 (+5%) realized +$7,346 · open −$1,199
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,935per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$829est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 547d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$9,332
other 28% +$1,316
tech 0% +$35
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.7% +3.7% 65% 65% -0.6%
≤30d 20 +14.7% +3.7% 65% 65% -0.6%
≤90d 22 +9.7% -0.8% 64% 64% -0.5%
all 43 +1.8% -7.9% 70% 56% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 56% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -10.6%
15% -24.8% 30% -19.2%
20% -32.1% 9% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$3,076) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,286 vs −$2,053 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$7,346
Unrealized−$1,199
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$829
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage547d
Avg bet$2,935
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $1,202 $3 −$1,199 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $16,339 +$7,457 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,654 +$711 +43%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 29 $669 −$669 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $1,467 −$1,467 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $16,657 +$3,173 +19%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,838 +$8,242 +290%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $2,045 +$3,079 +151%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $3,732 +$2,478 +66%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,058 −$2,058 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $4,450 +$550 +12%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $11,660 −$11,660 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,942 +$1,245 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5,687 +$2,145 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,076 +$1,074 +35%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $9,478 +$1,022 +11%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,164 +$2,761 +237%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,306 −$6,306 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $25,139 +$3,428 +14%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 13 $999 +$190 +19%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Oct 27 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Spirit win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Aug 04 $236 +$92 +39%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. MOUZ Aug 03 $64 +$25 +39%
IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. MOUZ Aug 03 $500 −$500 -100%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. Natus Vincere Aug 02 $621 +$240 +39%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIA Aug 02 $434 +$186 +43%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Aug 01 $500 +$35 +7%
IEM Cologne: Natus Vincere vs. MOUZ Jul 28 $150 +$61 +41%
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spirit Jul 28 $450 +$106 +24%
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. Vitality Jul 28 $351 +$52 +15%
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. HEROIC Jul 27 $219 +$40 +18%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Liquid Jul 27 $320 +$101 +32%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Apr 10 $116 −$116 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets Mar 10 $116 +$12 +10%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10? Feb 25 $116 +$7 +6%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February? Feb 01 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 27 $116 +$1 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 20 $116 +$50 +43%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-29? Jan 03 $115 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $329 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $19 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $5 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $47 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 21¢ $3 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 21¢ $623 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $141 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $47 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $3,566 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $8,170 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $3,501 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $4,668 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $455 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $8 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $5 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $869 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $126 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $4 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $53 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2,364 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $31 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $66 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $53 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $14 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 849 history records