trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 75% | 67% | -3.1% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 75% | 67% | -3.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 75% | 67% | -3.1% |
| all | 26 | -11.5% | -19.9% | 65% | 42% | -16.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.9% | 42% | -16.7% |
| 10% | -27.6% | 27% | -24.7% |
| 15% | -34.6% | 23% | -32.0% |
| 20% | -41.0% | 19% | -38.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 61¢ | 62¢ | $24 | $25 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $11 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 22 | $29 | +$5 | +18% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $15 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $27 | +$13 | +48% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $36 | +$18 | +52% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $12 | +$8 | +70% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $32 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $13 | +$9 | +72% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $6 | +$4 | +62% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Feb 11 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 04 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on | Jan 04 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a- | Jan 03 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press | Jan 03 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 03 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" while addressing t | Dec 18 | $9 | −$9 | -99% |
| Will Trump say "Golden Age" while addressing the nation on December 17 | Dec 17 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? | Dec 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Kast win by 15% to 20%? | Dec 16 | $24 | +$20 | +86% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Dec 14 | $37 | −$35 | -95% |
| Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | Nov 06 | $5 | −$1 | -25% |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Sep 07 | $5 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 30 | $10 | +$2 | +17% |